Early Cy Young Look - AL

Earlier in the week, I promised I'd dive into the AL, and I'm here to deliver on the promise.  While the AL Cy Young competition doesn't excite me as much as the NL, there's no question that some of the top arms in the bigs are in the DH league. Here's a look at the top 5:

1. Justin Verlander, DET


Justin Verlander


You could probably stop the list right here and be alright.  Verlander has already thrown a no-hitter this season, and just missed a second.  In fact, he's so good, you almost expect a complete game shutout every time he takes the hill. 

The numbers are outstanding- 0.89 WHIP (best in MLB), 10 wins (T-1st - AL), 124 strikeouts (1st in AL), and a 2.38 ERA (4th in AL).  Opponents are hitting a mere .176 against him. 

Combine the fact he plays for a decent team, and Verlander becomes the clear front-runner.  No offense to the other guys on this list, but at this point in the season, it's all academic after Verlander right now.

2. Jered Weaver, LAA

Remember how quick this guy got out of the gates?  And then how quick he slowed down?  Well, he's found a much more sustainable pace this time, and hasn't lost in close to a month. 

Weaver has put up some great numbers- 9 wins (2nd in AL), a 0.93 WHIP (2nd in AL), a 1.97 ERA (1st in AL), and 106 strikeouts (5th in AL).  He's also thrown 3 complete games, 2 of them shutouts, and opponents are hitting just .196 against him.

Hard to believe he's not leading the pack with those numbers, but Verlander has been that good.  I don't have any qualms saying Weaver would be the front runner in the other league, but that's the world we live in.

3. James Shields, TB

The triumphant return of Big Game James is here.  Personally, I was never worried.

Cliff Lee may be stealing all the headlines in the complete games department (3 shutouts in a row), but Shields has quietly thrown 6 CG this year, 3 of them shutouts.  THATS RIGHT- I said 6.  There are a lot of guys that won't throw 6 CG's in their career- yet alone in the first three months of a season.  Shields has only started 16 games this season- so he's going the distance about once every three times out- now that's old school right there.

Shields' number are outstanding - 0.96 WHIP, 2.28 ERA, 117 K's, and 8 wins- all in the top 10 in the AL. 

I'm not sure the Rays will still be willing to trade Shields, but he was on the block at one point.  If the Rays are dealing, someone will call.  He's only due to make $4 million this year, and just $2 million next.  Even if he completely tanks next season, it's a very small gamble.

4. Josh Beckett, BOS

I feel shaky putting Beckett on this list, especially with the time on the DL and the injury history.  The problem with not putting him on the list is when Beckett has been on the mound this year, he's been outstanding:  A 0.93 WHIP (2nd in AL), 2.20 ERA (2nd in AL), and 80 K's in just 90 IP.  Opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season.

His walk total has been a little high- 30 BB in 90 IP, but is not completely out of line given the 80 K's.  It finally looks like the Beckett of old is back, and just in time given the injuries to Dice-K and Bucholz.  If there's a team out there that might look for another arm for a stretch run, call me crazy, but I think Boston will be the first to pick up the phone.

5.  Felix Hernandez, SEA

I really struggled to fill the fifth and final spot in this list, so I took the east road and went with the reigning winner.  Hernandez has been good, but not great- 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 116 K's, and 8 wins.  Really, once you get past #1 on this list, it doesn't much matter.

Honorable Mention: Michael Pineda, SEA; David Price, TB; Dan Haren, LAA

Coming later this week: The best MLB pitching staffs.  Let the debate begin.

Early Cy Young Look - NL

I'll get around to talking AL baseball at some point, but I'll make no secret of the fact I'm not a huge fan of the DH, and much prefer to watch NL ball.  After yesterday's post about the top teams in the NL turned into a critique of pitching staffs, I figured I'd expand and pick my top 5 Cy Young candidates to date on the senior circuit.

1. Roy Halladay- Philadelphia Phillies
The numbers are mind numbing.  Even after a rough outing, Halladay sports a 2.40 ERA (2nd in NL), 123 K's (2nd in NL), 10 wins (1st in NL), and a WHIP of just 1.03 (Tie- 2nd in NL).  Add in the fact that Doc is on track to throw north of 220 innings this year, and it's tough to argue he won't repeat as winner of the award.  I've said it before- if I had to take one guy to throw one game that I had to win, Halladay would be my guy. 

2. Jair Jurrjens - Atlanta Braves



Jair Jurrjens

 Jurrjens has quietly moved into the runner up spot, posting 10 wins (1st in NL), an ERA of just 2.07 (1st in NL), and a WHIP of 1.14 (14th in NL).  Jurrjens is not a overpowering strikeout guy, recording just 55 K's thorough 95+ IP.  When he's been healthy, he's been a dynamite ERA pitcher over the past three seasons, but injuries have hampered his progress.  He's still a young arm, and one that will be around in Atlanta for a while.  If he can put together an extended injury free run, he's the type of player that could put a sub 2.00 ERA together deep into the season.

3. Clayton Kershaw- LA Dodgers
The Dodger's economic turmoil has overshadowed Kershaw's great performance this season.  He leads the league in strikeouts (128), and has won 8 games while compiling a 2.93 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP.  Kershaw has been on a roll lately, having won his last 5 decisions, not taking a loss since April 26.  He's thrown 2 complete games in a row, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 22.  He might be the hottest arm in the NL heading into the All Star break.

4. Cole Hamels - Philadelphia Phillies
Here's where it starts to get dicey- a lot of good candidates to round out the last two spots.  It's also hard to believe that I'm throwing a #3 starter into the Cy Young mix, but then again, it is the Phillies.  Hamels is the NL WHIP leader at 0.97.  It's the stat that speaks loudest to me as to how good a pitcher really is.  His ERA is 4th best in the league at 2.49, and he's racked up 108 K's, also 4th in the NL.  Too bad for him he's not the best pitcher on his team- and you just can't give the award to 2nd best.

5. Tommy Hanson- Atlanta Braves
The numbers say it all - 2.48 ERA (3rd in NL), and 1.03 WHIP (2nd in NL).  89 K's in 83.1 IP.  In just his second full season, Hanson has established himself as the Brave's co-ace of the future.  You see two Phillies and two Braves on this list (with good reason)- the good news if you're a Braves fan?  Jurrjens-Hanson's combined age: 49.  Hamels-Halladay's: 61.  The future is bright in Atlanta.

Next man out: Ian Kennedy, ARZ

Honorable Mention: Shawn Marcum, MIL; Tim Hudson, ATL; Matt Cain, SAN; Cliff Lee, PHI; Anibal Sanchez, FLA. 

Feel free to disagree, and let me know if I missed on anyone.

The JQ Baseball Power Rankings- NL Top 5

While carousing the internet this morning during the show, I saw a few of MLB power rankings, and thought I might give my own a shot- take the best of the best if you will.  I'm not a huge fan of interleague play, at least not in it's current form (maybe a topic for tomorrow), so I'll keep the leagues separate.  The NL gets center-stage today, and the AL will come later.

We'll stick to the top 5 for now.

1. Philadelphia Phillies
I just don't think there's any substitute for good pitching, and the Phillies have it.  Roy Halladay is the guy I'd want to send to the mound if I have to win one game for all the marbles- there is still no one in the NL that can deal like the Doc.  Oh, and their 2-3-4 punch of Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt isn't bad either. 

Offensively, the Phils still have a few question marks- can Chase Utley stay healthy?  Can Ryan Howard keep his strikeout total under his weight?  Will Jimmy Rollins start to hit like an MVP again?  I think the Phils will realize just how much Jason Werth meant to them at some point this season. 

2. Atlanta Braves

Jair Jurrjens

Sure, call me a homer if you want, but this team is good.  In fact, I'd say it's the best Braves squad since the turn of the millennium (sounds more impressive than what its actually is).  Like the Phils, the Braves have pitching, and the staff is actually deeper than their division rival. 

While Philly gets all the name recognition, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Brandon Beachy have been just as good- a team ERA of 3.08 (just .03 points higher than Philly), and a better BA and OPS against. 

Plus, with all due respect to Roy Hallady and Tim Lincecum, Jair Jurrjens is making a case for why he's the best pitcher in the NL.  Despite a trip to the DL, he was the first in the NL to 10 wins, an ERA of 2.08, and just 24 runs allowed through 95.2 IP.  Jurrjens doesn't have Doc's strikeout totals or big game persona, so I'll keep him as runner up for the Cy Young Award for now. 

The Braves problems also come with their offense.  They're getting very old at a few key spots- Chipper Jones is never a sure-bet to be in the lineup at #3, and they've had injury problems- Jason Heyward and Martin Prado have both been on the DL.  Plus, is there anyone in the system that can play a decent center field and hit above .220?  Maybe Jordan Schafer is finally the answer. 

3. San Francisco Giants
Pitching wins titles.  Just ask San Franscisco.  No coincidence that I have them right up with the Braves and Phillies.  With Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner (yes, I know he gave up 8 runs and recorded just 1 out last week- but did you see the line from last night?), the Giants will be ready for another post-season run. 

Once again, offense is what's lacking, and Giants may be worse off than most after losing Buster Posey for the season.  To steal a quote from "Major League," I've never heard of most of these guys and the ones I have are way past their prime... If San Fran wants to repeat, it might be time to add a bat to the lineup.  The rank 30th in runs scored, 25th in batting average, and 27th in on-base percentage. 

4. Milwaukee Brewers
The pitching is good, the offense is better.  Everyone knows that Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can hit.  What people are finding out is that Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Jonathan Lucroy can be tough outs as well. 

On the pitching end, Zack Grienke needs to really get it going.  He's been hit and miss since returning from injury, and needs to be the ace of the staff. 

I'd rank the Brewers higher, but I'm not sure the the team chemistry is where it needs to be.  Its a foregone conclusion that Prince Fielder will be picking up some change of address forms after this season, and I'm still not sold the Brewers won't try to trade him before the deadline.  That kind of uncertainty can kill a ballclub down the stretch. 

5. Arizona Diamondbacks
3 words- up and coming.  A young team with a ton of upside- Justin Upton has had a red-hot week, Kelly Johnson is proving why he was once thought of as a top-notch prospect, Chris Young has had a good season so far, and the list goes on. 

Pitching wise, Ian Kennedy has been good at the top of the rotation.  A 2.90 ERA so far with 8 wins.  Do you remember a few years ago when Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain were the "young arms" for the Yankees, and they refused to trade Joba?  Hughes panned out alright as a #3 starter in NY, Kennedy is on fire, and Joba is...well, a middle reliever. 

Biggest mover up: Washington Nationals
Yes, that's right, the Washington Nationals.  Riggleman walking out in the midst of a nine game winning streak is unusual, but these guys will be dangerous in the coming years.  Imagine adding Steven Strausburg and Bryce Harper to the lineup next season to compliment Werth, Zimmerman, and Michael Morse. 

Biggest mover down: St. Louis Cardinals
No Adam Wainwright and now no Albert Pujols until August.  You don't take your two best players off the field and expect not to be put on the "massive collapse" watch list.  They are still in it- but I won't be placing any bets on the Cards anytime soon.