Take a lesson from Major League Baseball- when you're on top, don't lockout. It took 2 players, 136 home runs in one year, and a hell of a lot of steroids to get people out to the ballpark again. How many points do you think LeBron James will have to score a game to save pro hoops?
While the NFL lockout story is still being written, the NBA is on the verge of making the same mistake. The players recently threw out the latest proposal by the league, in opposition to the proposed hard salary cap and new contract restrictions.
Here's the skinny- the league currently operates with a $58 million per franchise salary cap. Once the teams hit $70.3 million, they start paying a dollar-for-dollar luxury tax. The league is standing hard, saying they need to cut player salaries by an estimated $800 million annually.
The new proposal calls for a hard salary ceiling (no more cap with luxury tax situation) by the 2013-2014 season, with rollbacks over the next three years. If you do the math (and this won't be an exact science, not taking other factors into account), the league currently spends around $1.8 billion in salaries, with a desire to drop to around $1 billion. That would put an effective hard cap of around $35 million per team.
While there are a ton of other factors, the league is still asking for a major reduction in pay- an average of over $25 million per team. The league also wants a lower rookie pay scale, and a "star player" tag, giving teams more lee-way to negotiate with one top level talent.
The players, led by LA Laker point guard Derek Fisher, say a hard salary cap isn't in their game plan. While the league insists everyone will make more money, and everyone will be more competitive, the bottom line is the players will take a major pay cut. Who would want that?
Add the fact that there will be no more "Big 3" situations like we have in Miami and Boston (unless someone takes a major cut to play for a competitive team), and you've got a real game changer in the works in the NBA. Take the Heat- this past season, Bosh and James made $14.5 million each, and Wade made $14 million. That's $43 million right there- and way over the theoretical cap. The Celtics have nearly $41 million tied up in their Garnett/Pierce/Allen trifecta, and another $9 in Rajon Rondo. The new deal could change the landscape of the NBA.
Here's the big problem- there is a gaping difference between the two sides here. If the NFL is a ten-foot gap, the NBA looks like the Grand Canyon.
The even bigger issue is the NBA will suffer a painful, miserable death if they lockout. People don't have a favorable view of these things- it's just the greedy owners and the greedy athletes arguing over who gets the millions...but the bottom line is EVERYONE gets a few million. It's not like we're arguing over how to split a few thousand bucks.
The league insists they are losing $300 million each year. The players say they won't accept a hard cap to reduce costs. TV ratings for the NBA have never been better- over a million MORE people watched the first round games- and that's a million more PER GAME. Overall ticket sales are up around 1% (a big jump for sports).
My suggestion is this- a hard cap is the way to go, but you can't expect teams to reduce salaries by $25 million per team...it's just not reasonable. The league should expand their revenue distribution plan from higher TV ratings to help supplement team salaries. Eliminate the luxury tax system and set the hard cap around $45-50 million. That cuts between $200-$400 million off player salaries, and should make it so everyone can still be competitive.
For a league that is on the upswing, the player and owners need to wake up. Find a way to work this out, and get on it quick.
The clock is running, and we are now officially keeping score.
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