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Thursday, March 29, 2012

NL West Preview

Time to head west my friends, home of great arms and mediocre lineups.

I will say that this is probably the toughest division for me to predict - but that being said, here's the preview

JQ's Preseason Picks:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
You can't argue with good pitching and good hitting, and the Diamondbacks look to have both.  A surprising rotation last year headlined by former Yankee Ian Kennedy looks to be even stronger this year with the addition of Trevor Cahill.  The club resigned Joe Saunders, a formidable #4, and also brings back Daniel Hudson and Josh Collmenter.  On the offensive side of things, if you're looking for the next breakout MVP candidate, look no further than Justin Upton.  He's only 24 years old, and already has 5 years of experience under his belt.  He's the next superstar in my opinion, and this could be his breakout year.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Yep, that's right - the LA Dodgers.  Why?  Take a look at this team...three potential all-star bats with Kemp, Loney, and Ethier.  A rotation headed by Clayton Kershaw, the best young arm in the NL, and a legit run at 2-5, with Billingsly, Lily, Harang, and Capuano.  What's holding the Dodgers back is consistency - outside of Kemp and Kershaw, those listed above are a roller coaster ride on a ball-field.  The new ownership situation should help - if the Dodgers can get some production out of their bullpen and find some consistency, they could be the best in the West.

3. San Francisco Giants

Bumgarner could be big in 2012
It gets tricky from here, but I'll give the edge to San Fran based on the old adage that pitching wins championships - and the Giants may have the best 1-2-3 in the NL with Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner (and I REALLY like the latter to have a breakout season).  If you believe Barry Zito can still throw a strike or two, San Fran sets up with a nice rotation.  The problem for the Giants in offense - they had some of the worst run support in the league last year for their pitching.  Buster Posey coming back from injury will be a major boost this year, but the rest of the offense is still a question mark.  Pablo Sandoval has potential, Aubrey Huff has been good in the past, and the rest will just have to do their part to get by.

4. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are the opposite of the Giants... this team can really rake, but may not be able to pitch a lick.  The lineup is incredible - Tulo, CarGo, Cuddyer, Dexter Fowler, Helton...the list goes on and on.  The problem for the Rockies is their rotation could be bad...and I mean REALLY bad.  Their staff ace is Jhoulys Chacin, who had a subpar second half to 2011, but does have some upside.  Jeremy Guthrie holds down the #2 spot - maybe the "change of scenery" theory will do him some good, but he is still a guy with a career ERA north of 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.25.  Colorado is a tough place to pitch in the first place, and the Rockies just don't have a ton of rotation depth right now.

5. San Diego Padres
The good news for the Padres is the future is bright.  They did a great job trading away valuable assets while their value was still high in Mat Latos and Adrian Gonzalez.  They get back a great piece in Yonder Alonso at first base, a load of prospects, and a guy in Edinson Volquez I still think is worth a gamble.  I don't think this club is there yet, but the future looks good.

Coming soon, the NL East, home to the heavy hitters in the league.

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