First of all, sorry for no post yesterday- I really wanted to put some time into this one, as I know its a topic a lot of readers deeply care about. After examining the contenders in the NL Central the last two days, I thought it would be fun to take a look at a non-contender and see how to fix them...
The Cubs suck. End of story. Might be the worst team in all of baseball.
I should probably qualify that last comment- even though the Cubs may have a better record than some other clubs (take the Astros for example), when you look at the whole picture - record, financial situation, prospectus, farm system - they are, in my opinion, the worst team in baseball.
The bad news for all you North Siders out there is no quick fix. The club has tried that in the past, and have ended up doing nothing more than digging a deeper hole. At this point, it's time to stomach the truth...it's going to have to be a full-scale rebuild.
The point of this post isn't to point the finger, but if you're looking to the guilty party, you need not look any further than the front office. The CONTRACTS are the problem. For about a ten year period, the Cubs gave outrageous contracts to players that either weren't worth the money in the first place, or had yet to display any kind of sustained promise. Jim Hendry will be done at the end of next season (if not sooner), but in his defense, a lot of the damage was already done when he took office.
Time to get constructive- so how do we fix this thing? Well, take a look at each position- for each spot, I've broken down who is there now, and the top option that is available to the Cubs from here forward. The Cubs current payroll is around $135 million - way too high for a team that doesn't have a legitimate All-Star player. Remember- reasonable contracts and payroll flexibility are going to be key in rebuilding this team. The biggest reason they ended up where there are now is they can't make any deals because of how awful the contracts are. Here's the way I see it:
First Base
Currently: Carlos Pena
Pena is a nice player. Probably not a guy thats ever going to hit .300 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI's, but he's not a bad piece. Ideally, you'd like to get a little more production out of your first baseman, but Pena at first is a lot better option (by a long shot) than some of the other guys in their spots on the field. Pena's contract is very manageable: 1 year, $10 million, no strings attached. For a veteran player that's hit 20 HR's and 51 RBI's, despite just a .227 BA, it's not an awful deal. If the Cubs have to re-sign Pena for another year or two, it's not the end of the world. The bad news for Pena is that 1B is the spot where the Cubs can make the biggest improvement right away.
Best Case Scenario: Prince Fielder signs as a free-agent following the season
I know most Cubs fans are wondering, "Why not Pujols?" Lets be honest- chances Albert leaves St. Louis: about 10 percent. Chances Fielder leaves Milwaukee: about 100 percent. Yes, it would be nice to get Albert into a Cubs uniform, but do you remember that thing I mentioned earlier about bad contracts? Yeah, it's going to take a doozy to get Pujols. Although he's been one of the best players in the game, he's going to be coming out of his peak years as opposed to going into them, and 8-10 years at close to $30 million a year is too much to ask. Fielder will demand big money as well, but at least he's a younger player that might come a little bit cheaper. He's still going to be a $20 million plus per year type guy, but it's a much better gamble then 10 years to a star thats on the wrong side of 30. Fielder could be the centerpiece of the Cubs lineup for years to come. You have to at least roll the dice on him.
One side note- if you can't get Fielder, Bryan LeHair has been on fire at AAA Iowa this year...he wouldn't be an awful option at 1B, but he's probably not a franchise altering player.
Second Base
Currently: Darwin Barney, Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, and several other warm bodies
It's been second base by committee for a while on the North Side, and the final answer may finally be coming into place. Barney is the future- he's managed to hit .299 so far in his first major league season with an OPS of close to .700. He has only struck out 36 times in 314 PA this season, and plays decently in the field. He won't blow you away with his power numbers (just 1 HR this year), but how many teams rely on their second baseman for 25 home runs?
Best Case Scenario: Darwin Barney
He's a first year player that will be under club control for years to come. An option that's both cheap and high quality. SO, WHEN THE PHILLIES CALL OFFERING UP CHASE UTLEY- DONT DO IT! The old Cubs would have said yes, the new Cubs will say no.
Shortstop
Currently- Starlin Castro
I'm not even going to spend any time on this one. He's the best young player in the system, and won't even be arbitration eligible until next season. You can't possibly do any better here.
Best Case Scenario- See above.
Third Base
Currently: Aramis Ramirez
Our first pink elephant in the room. David Kaplan from ComCast Sports Chicago told me the other day he wouldn't keep Ramirez if I offered to pay his salary. He won't approve a trade, likely because he's lazy and doesn't want the responsibility of playing for a contender. Barring a small miracle, the Cubs will be stuck with him for the rest of the year, and luckily, no longer. He was once a top-5 third baseman, but those days are long gone. He's worn out his welcome in Chicago- get rid of him ASAP.
Best Case Scenario: ???
It's the weakest position in the majors right now, with guys like Chipper Jones and David Wright battling injuries and winding down careers. There are a few options in the minors- Josh Vitters could be useful some day, and Marquez Smith is on the DL right now at AAA Iowa, but can contribute at the major-league level. Blake DeWitt can slide over and play a decent third base, but he's probably not ready to be an everyday player just yet. Bottom line, is clear out Ramirez' $14.6 million salary, and you've got some money to play with elsewhere.
Catcher
Currently: Geovany Soto
Trade him. He's still has two years of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent, and after making $3 million this year, he'll be due a raise despite hitting just .238 with 8 HR and 24 RBI's so far this season. He's striking out once every four times he comes to the plate, and has been somewhat of an injury concern. He's only hitting .268 in his career, and just hasn't come around like most of the fans hoped he would. He's now 28 years old, and not getting any younger. Soto is the perfect example of a "change of scenery might do him some good" type player. There will be someone that will give you a prospect in return- take it. Same story with Koyie Hill. Time to make a change.
Best Case Scenario: Wellington Castillo from AAA Iowa
He made his first All-Star team at the AAA level this season. He's got a great arm, and plays solid defense. The bat still has a little ways to go, but I don't think you'll lose much offensively from what you were getting with Soto. Keep working with Castillo, and you might end up with a nice, cheap piece for years to come.
Outfield
Currently: Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome
I'd keep Marlon Byrd, at least he plays the game the right way. And he makes just $6.5 million next season, a relative bargain for the potential he brings.
The rest of the outfield is the laughing stock of the league. I made a case for Yuniesky Betancourt being the worst everyday player in the majors a few days ago, but Soriano gives him a run for his money. And at least Betancourt isn't making $19 million a year. Soriano may be a great guy (at least according to David Kaplan), but he's been regarded as the worst defender in the game for several years, and now he can't run anymore and can't hit. He's essentially become a $19 million black hole in left field. If he's this bad now, imagine what he'll be like in three years, when his contract finally expires. There's no question that the contract the Cubs gave him will go down as the worst in major league history.
Soriano recently said he'd be open to a trade. Most baseball types think (and I agree) his contract will be a major obstacle- after all, who wants to pay $60 million for a guy that can't hit, run, or play defense besides the Cubs? They'll have to eat a lot of it, and I mean probably $40-$50 million, to get someone to bite, but they should still do it. The other option is to pay the full amount to have him ride the pine.
Fukudome is in the same boat. $14.5 million this year is way to much to pay for a guy that is, at best, a mediocre fourth outfielder. There have been some rumors floating around that teams might be interested in acquiring Fukudome for a stretch run, and if that's the case, then unload him now. If the Cubs decide to keep Fukudome, then he'll have to take a major pay cut to be the fourth outfielder.
Best case scenario: Marlon Byrd, Brett Jackson, and a FA Outfielder
Byrd is in place for at least one more year. Brett Jackson is the top prospect in the system, and just got promoted to AAA. He should be ready by the start of next year. Keep Fukudome as a fourth outfielder if you want. The key will be signing a decent FA outfielder to a REASONABLE contract. The FA class doesn't blow you away, but there are some guys that can contribute. Depending on where Carlos Beltran ends up after July 31 of this year, he could be an option for a few seasons, so long as you could sign him to a reasonable deal. Josh Willingham is another quality option that could come at an affordable price. Otherwise, guys like Ryan Ludwick or Cody Ross could plug a hole for a year while you try to find a long-term solution.
Pitching
Currently: Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Big Z, Randy Wells, Rodrigo Lopez
I like Garza- $5.9 million this season with two years of arbitration left. I'd stay with him. I even like Dempster at $14 million next season- it's more than what he's worth, but outside of a terrible start, he's pitched like a solid #2. If you can trade Zambrano, do it. If not, he has one season left at $19 million (awful), but his 2013 option isn't likely to vest (he has to finish in the top 4 in Cy Young voting in 2012- dont think so). Randy Wells is a decent fifth starter, but nothing more. Lopez is simply filling a need right now.
Best case scenario: Garza, Dempster, and three more...
The farm system is loaded with arms right now. Trey McNutt, Chris Carpenter, Jay Jackson, and Hayden Simpson are all players that could contribute at the major league level someday. They'll all be arriving at different times, so you may need to grab a FA starter, but nothing major. The key with pitching is to stay patient and wait for the guys in the system to develop.
So that's a look at the Cubs and one potential fix. Around the horn, the club would look like this on opening day:
C- Wellington Castillo
1B- Prince Fielder
2B- Darwin Barney
SS- Starlin Castro
3B- Blake DeWitt / Marquez Smith
OF- Marlon Byrd
OF- Brett Jackson
OF- Josh Willingham./Ryan Ludwick/other FA
P- Ryan Dempster/Matt Garza
Not only does that lineup look better on paper, but much easier on the checkbook.
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